The United States has had a nail-biting election, which practically 24 hours after the very first ballot stations closed, is yet to produce a conclusive outcome. At the time of writing, there are still close races in the key states of North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
Every vote needs to be counted and each state should separately accredit their election results before any outcome is main, and even then there might still be legal battles and states depending on the margins.
However we still understand enough to make several immediate conclusions about this election and the future of United States politics.
Polling was incorrect … again
As polls started to close in state after state on the East Coast last night, election watchers had a déjà vu from 4 years earlier, when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. Then, despite a clear and constant benefit in the pre-election surveys at both the nationwide and state level, forecast after forecast was significantly off.
In advance of election day, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden was consistently forecasted to win the national popular vote, along with the huge bulk of state electoral votes based upon the averages of many state-by-state polls, much of which he was winning by double-digits. Regardless of this, when again, Americans viewed these projections turn out to be considerably unreliable.
Following the 2016 election pollsters were put under great analysis and entering this election, they often reassured the general public that their methods, metrics and designs were improved so as to prevent the exact same errors. Plainly, that did not occur.
It is difficult to tell precisely what was off this time and a number of surveys were certainly suspect. It is tough to inform, however what we do understand about this election, for example, is that third-party candidates played a far less considerable role than they did in2016
This election was a referendum on Trump and the huge, large majority of voters cast their ballot for among the two main party candidates to resolve the concern of whether or not Trump should have a 2nd term. So, it seems that those undeclared citizens in the surveys even in the very last days before the election chose to elect Trump or had been intending to do so all along, however did not report their objectives to pollsters.
Polling is a very complex science that has been certainly refined through unlimited practice in the American democratic experiment. Nevertheless, at the same time, the United States has a huge population whose info seeking practices and opinion formation is also progressively complicated. With two elections now in an information environment dominated by the web and social media leading to big misses out on by the ballot market, one has to question whether it is even possible to dependably poll and forecast a nationa