Expect Donald Trump beats Joe Biden in the presidential election. Theories will be plentiful regarding why Biden lost the race. At the top of the list, definitely, would be this one: “Biden didn’t project hard enough He hardly even left his basement!”
Think about just how much time and money the candidates invest flying across the nation to hold rallies and satisfy voters. They must understand what they’re doing, right?
There are two problems with this argument. First, Biden has spent plenty of time on the campaign path in 2020– acquiring almost as numerous sees as Trump, in reality. Second, my research shows that prospects generally don’t win votes through campaign check outs– implying that Clinton most likely didn’t lose because she avoided Wisconsin and that if Biden loses, it probably will not be because he stayed home too much.
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As part of my research agenda on the strategy and efficiency of presidential campaign gos to, I have actually been tracking every go to made by Trump, Biden and their vice governmental running mates this fall. This allows me to address the concern: Has Biden been missing in action on the campaign path? Basically, no.
By my count, Biden made 57 project gos to in September and October. Trump made just eight more check outs, with65 Biden checked out less states (10) than Trump (15). Biden campaigned more typically (14 times) than Trump (13 times) in Pennsylvania, the top battlefield state, and they checked out Florida 10 times each.
For that matter, Biden made more project gos to (57) than his much more youthful running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris (46), along with Vice President Mike Pence (52).
Trump would presumably have actually acquired much more visits had he not been sidelined by the coronavirus in early October. Biden nearly matched him in September, with 24 campaign sees to Trump’s26 At the very same time, Biden far exceeded Pence (16) and Harris (12). So much for being secured in the basement
So why do individuals believe Biden got terribly outhustled on the project trail? One reason may be that Biden had some big spaces in his schedule– for instance, he held no project events throughout a five-day stretch in mid-October. But that has actually been more the exception than the rule. Another, more important reason people think Trump was far more active than Biden might be the comparative sizes and scopes of their occasions.
Trump normally held a massive rally in one city before flying off to do the exact same in another city or state By doing so, he not only literally covered more ground but also reached more voters both face to face and via local media protection in multiple markets on the exact same day.