Donald Trump was when again underestimated by the polls.
On the one hand, this polling error is relatively regular That said, it does seem as if polls are still stopping working to capture some of Trump’s assistance.
There are a variety of possible descriptions for this, and no conclusive answers, but one thing I’ve stumbled upon in my public opinion research is that the share of Americans who are more socially detached from society is on the increase. And these citizens disproportionately support Trump.
The concept that some of Trump’s supporters are more likely to be disconnected from civic life is barely a brand-new one. research on the 2016 election by David Shor, a Democratic pollster, echoed what we discovered in our own pre-election 2020 survey: There was a large swing to Trump amongst white voters who had low levels of social trust– a group that researchers have found is likewise less likely to take part in telephone surveys
In our pre-election study on the strength of Americans’ social networks, we discovered that nearly one in 5 Americans (17 percent) reported having nobody they were close with, marking a 9 percentage point increase from 2013