Going into the governmental election, we anticipated President Trump to have an advantage in the Electoral College due to the fact that the key battlefield states were more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole Which, in truth, is exactly how things worked out: Trump and the Republicans delighted in the largest Electoral College edge in more than 70 years.
We can see simply how large this advantage was if we average the margins in the two “tipping-point” states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, or the states that delivered (or would have delivered) the definitive 270 th electoral vote Biden and Trump needed to win, respectively. (Biden’s tipping-point state was Wisconsin, while Trump’s would have been Pennsylvania, supplied he likewise won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. In a lot of years, the tipping-point state is the exact same for both celebrations, but sometimes there are 2 various states. In those cases, a state might have been carried by a third-party candidate, or there may have been an Electoral College tie. The latter occurred in2020, where Biden’s success in Pennsylvania provided him269 electoral votes, indicating he had to win Wisconsin to reach a bulk in the Electoral College. Trump would’ve needed to win Pennsylvania to get to 270, because winning Wisconsin would have gotten him to just269 electoral votes.
. ” data-footnote-id=” 1″ href=”http://fivethirtyeight.com/#fn-1″> 1) Averaged together, their margin had to do with D 0.9 points, or approximately 3.5 points more Republican-leaning than the national popular vote margin. This is significant since, as you can see in the chart below, the last time a party had an advantage this large– or larger– in the Electoral College was in1948, when the GOP’s edge was 3.8 points.
|Year||National popular vote|| Tipping-point
|Tipping-point margin||Electoral College Edge|
|2020||D 4.5||WI( D), PA( R)||D 0.9||R 3.5|
|2016||D 2.1||WI *.||R 0.8||R 2.9|
|2012||D 3.9||CO||D 5.4||D 1.5|
|2008||D 7.3||CO( D), IA( R)||D 2.0|
|1996||D 8.5||D 5.6||TN||R 0.9|
|1988||R 7.7||IL||R 7.9||D 1.8|
|1948||D 4.5||CA( D), IL( R)||D 0.6||R 3.8|
|1944||D 7.5||NY||D 5.0||R 2.5|
|1940||D 9.9||PA||D 6.9||R 3.1|
|1936||D 243||OH||D 206||R 3.7|
|1932||D 178||IA||D 177||R 0.1|
|1928||R 174||IL||R 147||D 2.8|
|1924||R 252||NY||R 266||R 1.4|
|1920||R 262||RI||R 312||R 5.0|
|1916||D 3.1||CA||D 0.4||R 2.8|
|1912||D 187||IA( D), NJ( R)||D 170||R 1.7|
|1904||R 188||D 0.2||D 0.8||NY|
|1884||D 0.6||NY||D 0.1||R 0.5|
|1880||R 0.1||NY||R 1.8||D 3.0||SC||R 0.5||R 3.5|
|1872||R 11.8||OH||R 7.1||D 4.7|
|1868||R 5.3||NC( R), AR (D)||R 7.1||R 1.8|
Surprisingly, that election wasn’t all too different to 2020 in that the Democrat (Harry Truman) won by carrying a number of close swing states However maybe more notably, 2020 was the 2nd successive governmental cycle in which the Republicans enjoyed a clear edge in the Electoral College compared to the nationwide popular vote.
In 2016, the GOP’s edge was 2.9 points, with Trump bring the ti