Economy14 minutes ago (Nov 02, 2020 06: 56 AM ET)
© Reuters. SUBMIT IMAGE: A citizen completes her ballot during early ballot at ONEOK Field in Tulsa
By Lawrence Delevingne and Pete Schroeder
WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) – From the beach towns of Pinellas, Florida, to the residential areas of Bucks County, Pennsylvania, Wall Street will be closely viewing a couple of lots counties on Tuesday night for tips on who will win the U.S. governmental race.
Financial investment firms, faced with the prospect of a disorderly election made complex by an extraordinary number of mail-in ballots, have actually hired political analysts and crunched voting data to try to identify essential counties and Senate races that may tell them which way the vote is headed.
Pinellas, home to St. Petersburg-Clearwater, has selected the winner of every presidential election since 1980 other than for the disputed 2000 vote. Bucks County, north of Philadelphia, is seen as an indicator of suburban enthusiasm for Democratic contender Joe Biden.
The calculus is by no methods definitive or detailed. With Democrats more likely than Republicans to vote early, for example, initial results from some counties might reveal a strong Biden lead that gets tempered or reversed as in-person tallies are counted.
” They are looking for the signal from the noise. It can seem overwhelming,” stated Andy Lewin, who works with monetary services customers for Washington lobbyist BGR Group.
He sees Pinellas and another county in Florida, Sumter, as bellwethers for older voters. If Biden exceeds Hillary Clinton – the Democratic candidate in 2016 – in Pinellas, or if President Donald Trump loses his margin of success from 2016 in Sumter, the Republican is unlikely to be re-elected, he said.
” They are fantastic proxies for investors on where the election is headed,” Lewin stated.
A spokesman for the Biden project decreased to comment for this story. Agents for the Trump project did not react to a request for comment.
Numerous investment strategists singled out Florida as crucial to Trump’s re-election. The state, with 29 Electoral College votes out of a total of 538, was essential to Trump’s surprise win in 2016.
” The absolute crucial thing to view on election night is what happens in Florida,” Ben Melkman, head of hedge fund company Light Sky Macro LP, told Reuters during a recent online forum.
Florida, along with North Carolina, Ohio and Texas– all states that financiers are keeping track of carefully– has currently begun to process mail-in tallies. Election professionals state these state