By Surjit S Bhalla & Abhinav Motheram
India2014 What do the above 5 national elections have in typical? The truth that seasoned professional and previously precise pollsters got significant aspects of the elections incorrect is a guideline.
Not for the mere desire for more accurate polls, but likewise since opinion surveys today both reflect and form public viewpoint. Is there a pattern to so numerous election forecasts going wrong in recent years? Seventy-five years later on, there are five consecutive surprises in a row (3 in 4 in the US, including the midterms in 2014 and 2018, which looks even worse when you include down-ballot races such as Senate and the House).
Was 2020 close to warrant soul-searching? Look at the percentage distinction in the vote share– 2016 was very similar to