f we are– as is being briefed by Downing Street– ready to participate in another tough set of national constraints to curb the spread of coronavirus ahead of Christmas what will the economic effect be?
What will be the cost of a second lockdown?
Exact financial projections are constantly dubious, and specifically so in these scenarios, when we don’t understand what the limitations would in fact be or for the length of time they would last.
But what about the total economic effect?
There are some factors to hope the effect of another lockdown would not be as serious as that.
The signals from ministers are that schools and universities would not close this time. With education output accounting for around 5 percent of GDP that should– simply on a math basis– suggest a smaller sized loss.
And last time the hardest limitations remained in place for 2 months. This time the talk is of one month of curbs.
Some companies that have implemented new physical distancing procedures because March, such as construc